Disease X
The next pandemic is around the corner. This is the view of many prominent scientists, infectious disease specialists and public health officials. Professor Patrick Vallance, the former chief scientific adviser to the British government recently warned that another pandemic is “absolutely inevitable” and that “we are not ready” to deal with it. The World Health Organization (WHO) has, in fact, dubbed the next potential plague "Disease X", a hypothetical infection that spreads like wildfire, leaving in its wake catastrophic global consequences. The term ‘Disease X’ was coined to spur governments to respond more effectively to the next lethal contagion.
The advent of COVID-19 garnered early comparisons with the Spanish Flu of 1918, which killed around 50-60 million people worldwide. However long before COVID took center stage, its family of viruses, (the coronaviruses) were strong favorites to give birth to the next pandemic. In 2002, another coronavirus, caused a severe pneumonia known as SARS (Severe acute respiratory syndrome). SARS killed around 1 in 10 of those infected.
A few years later, an even deadlier strain led to the outbreak of MERS (Middle East respiratory syndrome). MERS had a staggering kill rate of 1 in 3. Fortunately, despite both SARS and MERS being more fatal than COVID-19, they never reached pandemic status due to their lower transmissibility (ability to infect human hosts). Other candidates for apocalyptic viruses included the mosquito-borne Zika virus, and of course Ebola, which has a mortality rate of 80-90 %, causing severe and uncontrollable bleeding in its victims.
It is sobering to note that there are approximately 1.7 million unknown viruses on the planet, with best estimates indicating that around 700,000 of them have the ability to infect human beings. Scientists presently know of only 263 viruses that can infect our species, which means that we know almost nothing about 99% of the potential looming threats out there. No-one can predict exactly when or where ‘Disease X’ will emerge. However, what is certain is that it is out there and, at some point, will spill over from animals and into humans causing the next great pandemic.
But let’s put hypotheticals to one side. Right now, a virulent strain of bird flu is sweeping across the world and has already jumped from birds into several different mammalian species causing mass death tolls. The avian flu, H5N1, has been around for a while, but only recently has it gone into overdrive in terms of mutations and its rate of spread. What is particularly concerning is how quickly it can result in severe illness and death in those it infects. In fact, the spiraling number of animal cases have caused some experts to suggest that a new pandemic, deadlier than COVID-19, is already on our doorstep. Make no mistake, if H5N1 suddenly develops better human-to-human transmission, then we certainly have all the ingredients of a doomsday virus.
Pandemic Prophecies
This emergence of novel diseases, and an increase in epidemics hasn’t only captured the attention of the scientific community. It has also sparked interest in a large segment of the world’s religious communities. While secular scientists attribute the surge in infectious diseases to a complex interplay of socio-environmental factors; those of a religious persuasion see it as a result of disobedience to Divine Law and immoral human behaviour. Christians and Muslims in particular, who make up over 4 billion of the world’s inhabitants, interpret events through their respective eschatological lenses, sharing many striking similarities. They see the global injustice, inequality and greed to be the reason for the arrival of an imminent punishment that was prophecised thousands of years ago. People of faith argue that the problem at its root is a moral one, and that people are being punished for their immoral behavior by pandemics such as COVID 19.
Neither religion nor science need be discarded, they simply serve different roles. Science is a tool that allows us to measure and record observable phenomena, but it cannot always tell us why those observable phenomena exist. Science can help us to see the infinitesimally small structure of a virus, but it cannot tell us how and why they suddenly become active and mutate to infect different host species.
I would like to elaborate on the religious perspective and show how our ethical conduct has direct consequences on the well-being of our civilization. Take wealth inequality for instance, a key metric of societal injustice, and currently at an all-time high. The growing gap between the haves and the have-nots has undoubtedly created a huge reservoir of malnourished and immune-compromised individuals. Combined with the unsanitary and overcrowded conditions these poor people live in, pathogens have found the perfect breeding ground to hone their defenses and ply their trade. The poor have become the channel to infect the rich. Another example: human greed, manifested in the economic and political doctrine of capitalism. Excessive exploitation of natural resources causes ecological disturbances and climate change. Climate change and global warming leads to the migration of pathogens, through vectors like mosquitos, which subsequently wreak havoc in new territories. And how about the decades of irresponsible prescribing of antibiotics? Initially doctors were encouraged to prescribe antibiotics freely for all kinds of infections, including viral infections, against which they are totally ineffective. The overuse of antibiotics did two things: boosted profit margins for pharmaceutical companies, and secondly, gave rise to the notorious “superbug” phenomenon we now see in hospitals around the world.
For example, bacteria such as MRSA, are now resistant to virtually all known antibiotics. These so-called superbugs now pose massive problems to our healthcare facilities.
Now, let us turn our attention to the Abrahamic religions, which predicted the emergence of new diseases before the rise of a Savior. In the Jewish old testament, we are given many examples of how God uses disease as a weapon against the unjust and the oppressors. For instance, the tyrannical Pharaoh, who enslaved and persecuted the Israelites in Egypt, was swiftly brought to his knees by a sequence of terrible plagues which ravaged his kingdom. Until Moses, the promised savior appeared and led his people to freedom. Likewise, Christian eschatology is filled with warnings to believers. Jesus prophesied:
"There will be great earthquakes, and in various places famines and pestilences. And there will be terrors and great signs from heaven." – Luke 21:11
Based on Jesus’ words, we know that plagues will continue to be more prevalent, especially as we draw closer to the time of his promised return. This has led some Christians to even welcome such apocalyptic events, secure in the belief that they will be raptured into heaven, while the denizens of the Earth are left to endure the punishments.
In Islam too, there are many narrations, which mention the outbreak of great plagues in the end-times, before the rise and revolution of the Mahdi. Prophet Muhammad said:
"Count six signs before the Hour: my death, the conquest of Jerusalem, two plagues that will take you in great numbers as the plague of sheep [depletes them]" - Ṣaḥīḥ al-Bukhārī, 4:101, no. 3176.
Imam Jafar al-Sadiq, the 6th Imam and successor of the Prophet Muhammad elaborates further on the white death:
“Before the advent of the Qa’im, two types of death will occur: the “red death” and the “white death”. The red death is from war and the white death is from plague. They will kill five out of every seven people." - Kamal Al-Din: Part 2, p. 655, hadith 27
In the last narration, from Imam Al-Sadiq, we get an appreciation of the scale of devastation - over 70 percent of the human population is prophesied to perish. As a believer in God and his messengers Moses, Jesus and Muhammad; and as a doctor, who can see the pathogenic precipice fast approaching, I am both aggrieved and relieved. Aggrieved by the alignment in religious prophecy and scientific projection, both forecasting unprecedented suffering for mankind. Relieved because I have managed to find, by the Grace and Mercy of God, His messenger in this day and age and that I have the opportunity to inform you about him too. In this age, as in every age, God veils Himself in the guise of a man. This is the Imam, the Christ, the Moshiach, the promised Savior of mankind. He is Aba Al-Sadiq, Abdullah Hashem, the Riser of the family of Muhammad. He is the Mahdi promised to the nation of prophet Muhammad; the messenger of Jesus to the Christians and of Elijah to the Jews.
“I am inviting you to the Seventh and final Covenant between God and mankind. Accepting this covenant is the only thing that will save you from the punishment which is about to come down upon Mankind. Covid was merely the beginning of that punishment, and a precursor. More plagues and diseases will be unearthed and unleashed upon you. Viruses that were frozen and dormant for thousands of years will become alive once again. Strange illnesses that were never seen before will fall down to the Earth with comets and meteors. Sicknesses that are worse than the Black Death will sweep the globe.” - From the sermon ‘The Invitation of the Mahdi to be Part of God’s Chosen People’
Scary times we are living in!